The Influence Of Mid-Latitude Systems On The Predictability Of Rapidly Intensifying (Ri) Hurricanes In The Gulf Of Mexico

Presenter: Sam Dahl1
Co-Author(s): -
Advisor(s): Dr. Eyad Atallah, Xubin Zeng, Chris Castro
1Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona

Panapto Presentation Video
Poster PDF
Poster Session 2

Rapidly intensifying hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico have caused substantial loss of life and economic damage upon landfall in the Southern States. These storms are often forecasted poorly, with significant low bias just a couple days out in the forecast period (Cangialosi, 2021). The research aims to investigate the influence of mid-latitude cyclones on the propensity and predictability of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the region. Using several research lenses, including PV dynamics and an analysis of official NHC forecast skill, initial findings show that mid latitude cyclones do not have a direct impact on RI. Rather, internal tropical cyclone dynamics and principles of ocean-atmosphere coupling likely lead to unexpected RI prior to landfall. Further research will clarify these relationships.

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