A Global Climatology Of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification And Its Relationship To Teleconnection Indices

Presenter: Claire Acke1
Co-Author(s): -
Advisor(s): Dr. Eyad Atallah
1Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona

Panapto Presentation Video
Poster PDF
Poster Session 1

Several recent tropical cyclones have rapidly intensified (RI), a 30 knot increase of winds within a 24 hour time period, shortly before making landfall. Famous contemporary examples include Hurricane Harvey (2017) and Hurricane Michael (2018). The proximity of these storms to land can be particularly problematic if RI is not adequately forecast as it leaves the public precious little time to prepare and/or evacuate from the region. Factors that are well established to be conducive to intense tropical cyclones such as warm sea-surface temperatures and minimal vertical wind shear are thought to also be conducive to RI events. Consequently, climate-change impacts on sea-surface temperatures, future simulations of climate, increased news coverage, and recency bias has created the impression or expectation that there has been or will be an increase in the number of storms undergoing RI. Few studies, however, have performed a comprehensive global climatology of RI events to assess whether basin specific or global secular trends in RI exist. This study also investigates the influence of atmospheric teleconnection patterns, such as the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMDO) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on the frequency and distribution of RI events.

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