Assessing The Impact Of Climate Change On Localized Flooding And Affected Populations

Presenter: Adriana Arcelay1
Co-Author(s): -
Advisor(s): Dr. Kevin Lansey
1Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering and Mechanics, University of Arizona

Panapto Presentation Video
Poster PDF
Poster Session 1

Climate change effects are seen and felt by local and regional populations. These effects negatively impact the community due to loss of property and loss of life. The groups most impacted are minority groups due to their location, resources, and integrity of their infrastructure. Many studies predict flood patterns with an increased influx of water; not many show the communities or groups affected by these flood patterns. This research analyzes how increased precipitation due to climate change affects flooding patterns in Tucson Arizona. Due to the lack of storm water infrastructure and its relative flat slope, Tucson has significant local flooding from a range of storm events. Thus, two-dimensional modeling is a common modeling practice. Here, a city-wide Flo-2D model is developed and applied. To ensure reasonable calibration, Flo-2D results for current precipitation patterns were compared to existing FEMA floodplain maps. To understand how flooding impacts change, Flo-2D water surfaces are computed for a range of return period events for current and predicted climatic conditions. Average first floor elevations were then estimated by census block within ARC-GIS. With the inundation maps, we are able to identify the homes which will be flooded. Finally, using census block demographic data the impacted groups are identified by overlaying the GIS layers. Relative impacts on the extent of increased localized flooding is discussed by location and by affected populations.

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